๐Ÿ“Š Economic & Strategic Analysis โ€” Gigi

PSD2: Economic, Social
and Strategic Impact

Big Tech, Fintech and Thiel's philosophy: how a European directive revolutionised money โ€” and who wants to control it.

0
million Revolut users
0
Mโ‚ฌ APP Fraud losses '22
0
billion $ Revolut valuation
๐Ÿฆ 01 โ€” Traditional Banks

Impact on Traditional Banks

Before PSD2, banks held a monopoly over customers' financial data. The directive reversed this paradigm: data belongs to the customer, not to the institution holding it. Banks had to reinvent themselves.

Before vs After: a power revolution
DimensionBefore PSD2After PSD2
Customer dataExclusive bank propertyBelongs to customer, shareable with authorised third parties
Account accessOnly via the bank's own appAlso via third-party apps (TPPs)
CompetitionProtected banking oligopolyOpen market for Fintechs and Big Tech
InnovationInternal, slow, controlledExternal, fast, competitive
The banks' strategic response
โš™๏ธ

Technology investment

Development of EBA-compliant APIs and proprietary Open Banking infrastructure to avoid depending on third-party solutions.

๐Ÿค

Fintech partnerships

Turning potential competitors into allies through the Banking-as-a-Service model: acquire instead of fight.

๐Ÿ“ฑ

Banking super-apps

Digital ecosystems with aggregation, robo-advisory, and instant payments to compete on Fintech ground.

๐Ÿฆ Case study: Intesa Sanpaolo

Intesa responded by building an ecosystem integrating banking, insurance, and lifestyle services into one platform โ€” the "walled garden" model aims to make the experience so complete that customers have little reason to turn to third parties. A case of regulatory disruption paradoxically strengthening those who respond with strategic vision.

๐Ÿ’ก 02 โ€” Thiel & Fintech

Peter Thiel, PayPal and the Fintech DNA

PayPal (1998) is the founding precedent: it didn't want to improve the banking system โ€” it wanted to replace it. Thiel's vision โ€” an independent global digital currency โ€” anticipated by twenty years the principles later codified by PSD2.

The "Zero to One" Philosophy Applied to Fintechs
Thiel's PrincipleFintech ApplicationExample
Technology monopolyDominate a niche before expandingRevolut: free currency exchange
Network effectValue grows with usersKlarna: more merchants โ†’ more users
Zero to oneDon't optimise the old โ€” build something newN26: no branches, mobile-only
Hidden secretsExploit information asymmetriesFintechs use PSD2 data that banks undervalue
๐Ÿง  Quiz: do you think like Thiel?

Three entrepreneurial scenarios. One choice. Find out if you think like a founder.

Question 1 / 3

You're launching a Fintech. How do you win your first users?

The "correct" answers reflect Thiel's logic โ€” not necessarily the objectively best choice!

๐Ÿ“Œ The PayPal Mafia and the multiplier effect

PayPal's co-founders went on to build LinkedIn, YouTube, Yelp, Palantir, Tesla, SpaceX. A similar phenomenon is emerging in Europe: ex-employees of Revolut, N26 and Klarna are founding the next generation of Fintechs.

๐ŸŒ 03 โ€” Big Tech

Big Tech: The New Payment Monopoly

The true heirs of Thiel's vision are not European Fintech startups, but Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon โ€” applying Thiel's logic: dominate a niche first, then expand into financial services as a natural step toward monopolising the digital ecosystem.

๐Ÿ‘† Click on each company to discover its financial expansion strategy.

Apple
Apple Pay ยท Apple Card ยท Apple Cash
โ–ผ
Exclusive iOS NFCBiometricsWalled garden

Apple made the bank irrelevant in the user experience: by embedding payments into the iPhone's NFC chip, anyone wanting contactless payments on iOS must go through Apple Pay. Pure gatekeeper position.

iOS mobile payment dominance:

โš–๏ธ EU antitrust investigation (2024)

The Commission concluded with an obligation to open NFC access to competitors โ€” exactly what PSD3 wants to extend to all.

Google
Google Pay ยท Google Wallet ยท UPI India
โ–ผ
Behavioural dataAndroid dominanceEmerging markets

Google leverages Search and Maps data to offer contextual financial services. In India via Google Pay on UPI, it became one of the largest payment operators โ€” 100M+ users โ€” without being a regulated bank.

Google Pay market share in India:

๐Ÿ’ก Google's secret

Unlike Apple, Google doesn't seek the walled garden: it wants transaction data. The payment service is almost a pretext to acquire behavioural financial data.

Meta
WhatsApp Pay ยท Facebook Pay ยท Diem (โ€ )
โ–ผ
Integrated P2PSocial graph3 billion users

Meta integrated P2P payments into WhatsApp. The Libra/Diem project โ€” abandoned under regulatory pressure โ€” was Thiel's original PayPal vision, scaled to 3 billion users.

WhatsApp users reachable via WhatsApp Pay (%)

๐Ÿ’€ Why Diem failed

Governments and central banks united in opposition: a private Meta currency would have eroded monetary sovereignty. The first case of Big Tech stopped by a global regulatory coalition.

Amazon
Amazon Pay ยท Amazon Lending ยท BNPL Affirm
โ–ผ
Embedded FinancePurchase dataB2B + B2C

Amazon Lending offers credit to merchants based on sales data โ€” without traditional collateral: the data is the collateral. The most advanced case of Embedded Finance.

Amazon Pay presence on top 1000 US e-commerce sites (%)

๐Ÿ”ฎ Thiel on Embedded Finance

The future of payments is not a "digital super-bank" but the dissolution of finance as a separate sector โ€” invisible infrastructure.

โš ๏ธ The digital monopoly paradox

Apple controls NFC access on iOS, Google dominates Android. Anyone wanting mobile payments must go through them โ€” despite not being regulated banks. PSD3 attempts to resolve this asymmetry.

๐Ÿ’ฐ 04 โ€” Business Models

How Do Fintechs Make Money?

Fintech business models are varied and often combined. Explore each one to understand the economic mechanics behind the app on your phone.

Neobank / Challenger Bank
Examples: N26, Revolut, Bunq

Native digital current account with no branches or technological legacy. Marginal cost is near zero compared to a traditional bank, making the free base plan sustainable.

PSD2 dependencyHigh
Single-user profitabilityMedium
How it earns
Interchange fees (% on every card payment)
Premium subscriptions โ€” e.g. Revolut Metal: ~โ‚ฌ13/month
Spread on foreign currencies and interest on savings accounts
Consumer loans and credit
๐Ÿ“ฑ Freemium model๐ŸŒ Global niche (Thiel)๐Ÿ”— Network effect
Payment Initiation (PISP)
Examples: Klarna, TrueLayer, Token.io

Initiates payments directly from the bank account without credit cards. The merchant saves Visa/Mastercard fees (1.5โ€“3%). Structurally impossible before PSD2.

PSD2 dependencyTotal
Margin per transactionMedium-low
How it earns
Per-transaction fee to merchant (lower than cards)
API fees for developers (B2B)
Revenue share with partner banks
๐Ÿฆ Bypasses Visa/MCโšก Instant payments๐Ÿ”‘ Only exists thanks to PSD2
Account Aggregation (AISP)
Examples: Plum, Emma, Yolt

Unified multi-account view: users see all their accounts in one app. Turns banking data into personal financial intelligence. GDPR is however a critical constraint.

PSD2 dependencyTotal
GDPR riskHigh
How it earns
Monthly subscription โ€” e.g. Plum: โ‚ฌ2.99/month
Aggregated anonymous insights sold to financial institutions
Contextual product recommendations

โš ๏ธ GDPR tension

Consent must be specific to each purpose. Many apps collect generic consent โ€” a grey area that PSD3 intends to close.

Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL)
Examples: Klarna, Scalapay, Afterpay

Instant credit at checkout, often "interest-free" for the user. The merchant pays to increase conversions (+30%). BNPL acquires data on every purchase to build predictive profiles.

Global scale reachedVery high
Growing regulatory pressureHigh
How it earns
Merchant commission โ€” 3โ€“6% per transaction
Interest on delayed instalments or longer plans
Premium services, insurance and behavioural data
๐Ÿ›๏ธ Klarna: 150M users, 45 countries๐Ÿ“ˆ +30% merchant conversion
Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS)
Examples: Solarisbank, ClearBank

Banking infrastructure via API for third parties. Any company can offer accounts, cards and loans without its own banking licence. It's the foundation of Amazon's and Shopify's Embedded Finance.

ScalabilityVery high
Regulatory complexityHigh
How it earns
Fee per API call โ€” pay-per-use
Monthly white-label licence
Revenue share on client earnings
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Tim Money๐Ÿ›๏ธ Shopify Payments๐Ÿ“ฆ Amazon Embedded
Revolut vs N26 โ€” two approaches compared
๐ŸŸฃ Revolut๐Ÿ”ต N26
Founded2015, London2013, Berlin
Users (2024)45M+ globally8M+ in Europe
RevenuePremium, crypto, stock trading, BaaSSmart/You/Metal plans, credit
Thiel strategyGlobal niche โ†’ service expansionRadical simplicity as barrier
Valuation~$45B USD (2024)~$9B USD (2021)
โš–๏ธ 05 โ€” GDPR

Tension with GDPR

PSD2 data consent introduces a structural tension with GDPR: on one hand, the customer owns their financial data; on the other, consent mechanisms โ€” often designed as dark patterns โ€” risk turning free choice into an unwitting surrender of sensitive data.

๐Ÿ“‹ PSD2 says:

AISPs can collect banking data on customer consent. The goal is to enable innovation and competition.

๐Ÿ”’ GDPR says:

Consent must be free, specific, informed and unambiguous, revocable without consequences. A blanket "catch-all" consent is not valid.

๐Ÿ“… Real cases โ€” click to discover the story
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
CNIL fines Google โ€” โ‚ฌ50 million
France, 2019
โ–ผ
The CNIL fined Google for non-transparent consent during Android setup. Implication for Fintechs: the same pattern (multi-page consent, hidden opt-out) used by many PSD2 apps is equally unlawful.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง
ICO vs Open Banking Ltd โ€” Purpose Limitation
UK, 2021
โ–ผ
The UK ICO investigated whether Open Banking APIs enabled data collection disproportionate to stated purposes. GDPR Art. 5 principle: data used to show balances cannot be reused for commercial profiling without separate consent.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น
Italian DPA โ€” Fintech Dark Patterns
Italy, 2022
โ–ผ
The Italian DPA flagged dark patterns in Italian financial apps: prominent green "allow all" button, hidden grey refusal, pre-ticked boxes. GDPR violations via dark patterns can lead to fines of up to 4% of global annual revenue.
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
"Silent Parties" case โ€” data of those who never consented
EDPB, 2020
โ–ผ
When an AISP accesses your bank statement, it also sees data from people who sent you money โ€” people who never consented. The EDPB clarified: these "silent parties" are protected by GDPR and their data cannot be used for profiling.

๐Ÿ“Œ GDPR and PSD2 are not ontologically contradictory

Effective protection requires not only technical regulation but also digital education. Coordinated enforcement between the two frameworks is still lacking in many member states, including Italy.

๐Ÿšจ 06 โ€” Fraud

Fraud: Why PSD3 Is Needed

SCA dramatically reduced "traditional" fraud. But it opened the door to more sophisticated scams that exploit the human element โ€” something no technical system can eliminate.

Authorised fraud losses in Europe (EBA, 2023)
2019
~600M
2020
~820M
2021
~970M
2022
1,17B

Despite SCA, authorised fraud losses continue to rise. Technology cannot eliminate human deception.

๐ŸŽฎ Simulator: can you spot the scam?

You're using your Fintech app. A message arrives. What do you do?

๐Ÿ“ฑ Notification โ€” Revolut
"Dear customer, we have detected suspicious access. One of our operators will contact you in the next 30 seconds. Do NOT make any payments until the call."

30 seconds later you receive a call from a number appearing as "Revolut +39 02 3456789". The voice tells you to move your funds to a "temporary security account". What do you do?

โŒ You are a victim of APP Fraud

You authorised the payment yourself โ€” technically SCA was respected. The bank may not reimburse you. No bank or Fintech will ever call asking you to move funds. The number can be faked (caller ID spoofing).

๐Ÿ“Š UK 2022

APP Fraud losses exceeded ยฃ485 million. PSD3 introduces shared bank-merchant liability for these cases.

โœ… You avoided APP Fraud

By calling the official number you confirmed there was no real problem. The original message was a spoofed SMS. Golden rule: never move funds on a phone request, even if the number looks legitimate.

๐Ÿ’ก IBAN/Name Matching โ€” PSD3

Before authorising a transfer, the bank will verify that the IBAN and the beneficiary's name match โ€” reducing transfers to fraudulent accounts.

Other real cases driving the need for PSD3
๐Ÿ“ฑ

Revolut Phishing (2022)

Criminals replicated Revolut's interface via fraudulent SMS. Thousands of users entered their credentials on an identical fake site โ€” revealing the vulnerability of SMS-based authentication.

๐Ÿ’ฅ

Wirecard (2020)

One of the largest PSD2 processors declared bankruptcy after falsifying โ‚ฌ1.9 billion in assets. Millions of Fintech users had their cards blocked instantly.

๐Ÿ”„

SIM Swap Attack

The fraudster transfers the victim's number to a new SIM and intercepts all authentication SMS messages. PSD3 pushes toward app-based authenticators (TOTP) instead of SMS.

๐Ÿ”ฎ 07 โ€” PSD3

PSD3 and the New Balance

The European Commission published the PSD3 proposal in June 2023, alongside the PSR Regulation. Four critical areas for intervention, directly linked to the cases documented above.

๐Ÿšจ

Rising fraud

SCA protects against unauthorised access but not against deception. PSD3 introduces shared bank-merchant liability for APP Fraud and mandatory IBAN/Name Matching.

โšก

Underdeveloped Open Banking

Many banks deliberately implemented slow APIs to discourage competitors. PSD3 imposes mandatory harmonised standards with minimum SLAs and penalties.

๐Ÿ“ฑ

Asymmetry with Big Tech

Apple and Google control NFC access while partially operating outside the PSD2 framework. PSD3 mandates open NFC access for all authorised providers.

๐Ÿ”’

GDPR coordination

Harmonised standards for PSD2-GDPR consent: explicit separation of consent by purpose and an explicit ban on dark patterns in Fintech interfaces.

๐Ÿ“Œ The real challenge for the coming years

It is not between banks and Fintechs โ€” but between the regulated European ecosystem and global Big Tech companies applying Thiel's monopoly logic at planetary scale. PSD3 is Europe's attempt to ensure this opening produces real benefits for consumers, without reproducing in digital form the same oligopolies the directive set out to dismantle.

Conclusion

PSD2 is the legal codification of a vision for an open and competitive digital economy. Just as PayPal didn't want to improve money transfers but to reinvent them, Fintechs born in the PSD2 ecosystem don't optimise the traditional bank: they redefine it.

๐ŸŽฏ Disruption

Fintechs apply the "zero to one" philosophy to create markets that previously did not exist

๐ŸŒ Big Tech

The real clash is between the regulated European ecosystem and global digital monopolists

โš–๏ธ GDPR

Data protection and financial innovation must coexist under clear rules

๐Ÿ”ฎ PSD3

Open NFC, APP Fraud protection, unified API standards โ€” Europe's answer